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Politics & Media
Apr 15, 2024, 06:24AM

Trump’s Political Calculation On Abortion

The GOP nominee attempts to straddle the explosive issue.

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Liberal politicians and their buddies in the media want you to think otherwise, but Donald Trump is pro-choice.

His recent statements regarding abortion let us know that Trump wants states to decide the life issue—and he wants them to make elective abortion legal.
Trump boasts of getting the justices on the Supreme Court necessary for overturning Roe v. Wade, giving states greater authority to legislate abortion, particularly regarding gestational limits.

As a pro-lifer for most of my life, I understand that abortion kills an unborn baby, and therefore, it should only happen in rare and limited circumstances. The law should bar elective abortions at any stage in a pregnancy. Exceptions should exist for rape, incest, the life of the mother, severe health complications for the mother, certain severe disabilities, or to protect the life of an unborn child (selective reduction).

I consider that a fair compromise that protects unborn children in nearly all pregnancies while preventing the types of tragic unwanted pregnancies that lead to states or the Supreme Court liberalizing their abortion laws. I know Roe lied about being a rape victim, but the lack of that exemption in Texas abortion law led to the awful Roe v. Wade decision.

That’s not how Trump views the issue. He released a video statement last week saying that he thinks abortion is a states' rights issue, meaning, if elected to a second term, he wouldn’t support a federal gestational limit on abortion. One can understand that position, even if they disagree. The U.S. Senate has 46 pro-life members; Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, and Shelley Moore Capito are all pro-choice Republicans, and the 51 Senate Democrats all support legal abortion. Talking about a federal gestational limit wastes time for Trump because it loses him potential voters, all for a hypothetical. And the hapless 15-week gestational limit that many pro-life politicians and organizations want is bad. About five percent of abortions occur after that point, and bans only prevent a minority of abortions.

Politicians can likely find a more effective way to save little lives rather than arguing over unworkable solutions. Great! That must mean Trump wants states to protect unborn children, right? Wrong. He attacked the Arizona Supreme Court for upholding a near-total abortion ban from the 19th century and said the state goes too far. The GOP legislature should probably work with the Democratic governor to add some exemptions, but the ban is good news—far better than the status quo on abortion in Arizona.

Trump also attacked Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for signing a heartbeat bill into law last year, banning most abortions after six weeks. Pro-lifers should dislike heartbeat bills because they allow for elective abortions for six weeks too many, but Trump thinks the law is too strict. He also correctly thinks the referendum in Florida to make abortion a right will likely pass this November, something that will need at least 60 percent support. The proposal would nullify the six-week and even 15-week gestational limits DeSantis has signed into law.

If someone opposes a total ban on elective abortion and banning elective abortion after six weeks, they’re pro-choice. This is a political calculation on Trump's part. He understands Arizona may have referenda on abortion, like Florida. In both states, majorities will vote in favor of legal abortion, as they have in Kansas, Ohio, and Michigan. Trump must take Florida to win the 2024 presidential election. Arizona’s a battleground state; paths to victory exist without Arizona, but winning the traditionally red state helps make that easier.

If Trump can dump his supposed pro-life stance, was he ever pro-life in the first place? Pro-lifers should hope that Trump and pro-life organizations develop a competent abortion reduction agenda because they can do that, even if abortion remains legal. Liberal politicians have little interest in an abortion reduction agenda because pro-abortion organizations feel it stigmatizes abortion—hence why the Democratic Party removed "rare" from its abortion platform, as in "safe, legal, and rare." That means Trump can claim the mantle of "rare" if he wants it. He should.

Discussion
  • >> The law should bar elective abortions at any stage in a pregnancy. Exceptions should exist for rape, incest, the life of the mother, severe health complications for the mother, certain severe disabilities, or to protect the life of an unborn child (selective reduction).<< How would this work in practice? Would there be labels of judges and doctors on standby deciding if a particular pregnancy qualifies? Appointed by whom? Would they be empowered to decide, say, there was a rape regardless of whether anyone's been indicted, let alone convicted? Would these decision-making entities monitor a case ongoing to determine if there's a threat to the mother's health, severe disability etc and respond rapidly to what could be thousands, or more, cases on the docket?

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  • Panels, not labels.

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