This is your day, Haley Stevens. Early Saturday evening she texted a Dem buddy to say she’d be at services with Abdul El-Sayed for a big unity display on Sunday. When the time came, some of her staff could be found waiting at the church. But she never showed. A while before noon she emerged from an entirely different church, inside of which she’d been worshipping with the man running against El-Sayed for the Senate. In front of a knot of reporters, the Democratic congresswoman endorsed the fellow, a Republican named Mike Rogers. All through the week Stevens had been telling fellow Democrats—Gretchen Whitmer, Chuck Schumer, Debbie Dingell, Jamie Raskin—that she was solid for El-Sayed, the man who’d beat her for the Democratic nomination. A staffer asked if Stevens would end up doing what in fact she ended up doing. “Omg, why would you think I would do that?!!” Stevens texted back. Well, let’s say that in the last days of the campaign you wrangle with El-Sayed about an ad by a super-PAC that’s unaffiliated with him, an ad that’s against aid to Israel. Then El-Sayed’s campaign disinvites you from the big unity church service, you find out, and you pass a furious Saturday night (as opposed to evening) before getting up in the morning to shiv him good and hard.
If Israel bought off Stevens, the check could’ve cleared a lot earlier. The lady’s reversal is so last-minute and flaky that I think El-Sayed will benefit rather than suffer. But I expect sanity and the US is more intent on playing snake-in-a-can. Every fifth headline seems to jump out at you, a bit like Stevens and her face lunging toward the screen (she’s telling Anderson Cooper about all the positive feedback from voters who like her decision). Who knows what the voting fools may uncork. But I keep thinking they’ll get tired and settle for non-craziness.
In that spirit I say the Democrats will finish with 51 votes in the Senate. This forecast isn’t the result of thorough data gathering and careful analysis. I just figure, that’s all. Look at the states where the Republicans ought to be coasting and instead they have to fight: Kansas, Nebraska, Mississippi, and so many others. But consider the Democrats’ ability to go limp, plus America’s tendency to blow it. It all adds up to a Senate majority for the Dems, but just barely.
In Alaska the headlines about a criminal probe will doom Mary Peltola; races there can be close and her team just bought her publicity (decoy candidate ruse exposed) that sits very poorly with the candidate’s nice-gal image. In South Carolina, Darline Graham loses because it’s a joke for someone that ignorant to run. Even in the Age of Trump she stands out, to an unconscionable degree. In Texas, James Talarico beats Ken Paxton because, even in the Age of Trump, Paxton stands out as morally corroded. In Michigan it’s El-Sayed over Rogers. There are always Americans who tell the pollster they’ll vote for the minority but then don’t, so El-Sayed’s polling margin will shrink. But not enough for him to lose, especially after the Stevens weirdness.
Of those four races, we have a Democrat losing, a Republican losing, and two Democrats winning. I’ll venture nothing about the others; though, okay, it’s hard to believe Susan Collins can keep her act going. The Democrats will do fine in the House, just like everyone says.
America will endure, though God knows as what. Meanwhile, Haley Stevens will shove her face at a screen and says she’s proud to be a Democrat, or, alternatively, a Republican.